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This book uses numerous examples to demonstrate how the capital cycle approach to investments works, and how it has provided investors with market-beating returns over the past decade.
- Sales Rank: #45099 in Books
- Published on: 2015-12-28
- Released on: 2015-12-28
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.56" h x .74" w x 6.28" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 211 pages
Review
“Capital Returns brings together industrial economics, Michael Porter’s competitive analysis and behavioral finance, into a powerful long-term investment approach that Marathon Asset Management calls ‘capital cycle’ analysis. … This is one of the best investing books I’ve read. Highly recommended!” (Strictly Value, strictlyvalue.wordpress.com, January, 2016)
Review
'I read Capital Returns in one sitting. I wish this book had been available when I started in the business. One of the best books on investment I've ever read.'
-Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of the Bear
'Capital Returns shows how excess investment drives mean reversion in the stock market. Investors who wish to understand bubbles should read this book.'
-Jeremy Grantham, Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo
'Forget Warren Buffett. If you really want to know how markets work read this.'
-Merryn Somerset-Webb, Editor, MoneyWeek
'Investors, fancying themselves capitalists, have long ignored the vital role of capital investment in driving investment success. This wonderful book may change that. Delve into its readable and informative even revelatory pages, and let the scales fall from your eyes.'-James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer
'This book exemplifies the simple but sadly unrecognised idea that long term investment success depends on understanding business models.'
John Kay, author of Other People's Money and the Kay Review of UK Equity Markets
About the Author
Edward Chancellor (editor and introduction) is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (FSG, 1999), a New York Times 'Notable Book of the Year' and editor of Marathon's previous book, Capital Account: A Money Manager's Reports on a Turbulent Decade (Thomson Texere, 2004). Mr. Chancellor is an award-winning financial journalist, who has written for the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters and many other publications. He is a former member of the asset allocation team at GMO, a Boston-based investment firm.
Marathon Asset Management (trading in the United States as Marathon-London) is an independent owner managed investment firm based in London. Founded in 1986, Marathon has successfully applied longer-term and often contrarian investment strategies around the globe.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
An investment Gem
By David Shepley
Truly a joy to read. A more holistic and complete harnessing of Marathon's investment philosophy than Capital Account. Practical wisdom exudes from these well-written pages of recent market history. Essential reading for a fundamentally-driven investor. Poignant discussions around key value drivers; capital allocation, sustainable competitive advantage, business model, investor psychology and industry capital cycles. Honest discussions via client communications adds a layer of authenticity. Take your time with this book, you will be well served. Capital Returns enters a worthy list of my favorite investment/business books: Charlie Munger the Complete Investor, More Than You Know, Origin of Wealth, Antifragile & Capital Returns. Enjoy!
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Every finance library needs one
By Michael L
Wow! This is a highly refreshing finance book. Being in the finance industry for several years, I have ready countless finance books. Most don't add much new and refreshing information. Capital Returns was extremely refreshing and made me see and think about new things. This is one I will definitely need to reread again and again. The sections are short (pieces of Marathon's letters over the years), so you could read a section a day.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Read it, think hard and reread it
By investingbythebooks
This is the even more brilliant sequel to the already superb 2004 book Capital Account. Edward Chancellor, the author of the classic Devil Takes the Hindmost, picks and chooses among the 2002 to 2015 Global Investment Reviews written by money manager Marathon Asset Management. The essays are sorted into themes. The benefits for us all of keeping some sort of diary, writing monthly investment letters or in some other way document happenings, the zeitgeist, thoughts and feelings become more than apparent. This wasn’t too long ago, but things that shouldn’t be forgotten are starting to fade away from ones memory. Here Marathon lets anybody peak into their diary.
Capital Returns has three important sections. The first one is what sets this book apart from its prequel; Edward Chancellor has written a terrific introduction that spot-on describes the main features of Marathon’s investment philosophy. The next section presents essays that dive deeper into this philosophy and the final one looks to the buildup of, the crescendo of and the resurrection from the Great Financial Crisis. Although there are several interesting topics in the latter they are pretty well discussed and I will focus on the investment philosophy parts.
As any investment philosophy it contains several components but what differentiates Marathon’s thinking is their focus on The Capital Cycle and a number of industry supply factors. Here they clearly stand out. It’s been a long time since reading an investment book gave so many impulses like “I should start a time series of this” or “Hmm, perhaps I could build a model of that” etc.
So what is The Capital Cycle? It’s really no magic; in good times when returns on investments are impressive and corporate valuations are higher than the replacement cost of the productive assets, industry capacity increases by pooling of new financing – equity and credit - into the area, allowing existing companies upping investments and new companies entering the market. All earn good money but after a while the added supply and increased competition will overwhelm demand and the cycle will turn. In troubling times productive capacity will be retired, companies will leave the market or simply go bankrupt and eventually the lessened supply and competition will face a demand that is improving and the cycle of over and underinvestment starts anew.
What I see as unique in this is the strong focus on the supply side and how they systematically track a wide number of parameters to understand the cycle on industry, sub-industry and corporate level. Not all industries are capital heavy but you can still get a fair grip of whether industry capacity is increasing or decreasing. True to this analysis, the evaluation of corporate managers and their incentive schemes also zeros in on capital usage. How managers understand the capital cycle and allocate capital is critical for long-term corporate success and then you cannot have incentive schemes that promote myopic profit maximation and “optimal leverage” at any given moment in time.
The book discusses two types of investment cases that follow from the cycle, the franchise stock that can retain a ROIC longer than the market price and the turnaround case that will improve its ROIC more or faster than the market price. Importantly, the turnaround is not necessarily a traditional bottom-up case, but is rather found by a top down analysis first and corporate analysis second. This opens up more investment options.
The writing almost has the same philosophical depth and enjoyable language as that of Howard Marks, the theoretical depth isn’t exactly that of a Michael Mauboussin – but not too far away. What comes on top of this, as the cherry on the cake, is the down to earth and vivid discussion on business operations and day-to-day investing.
Buy this book, read it, think hard and reread it.
This is a review by investingbythebooks.com
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